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Low Interest Rates Hurt Seniors

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The Federal Reserve Board has not formally relaxed its intention to keep interest rates low through the end of 2014. And there is little new to say about the way non-existent interest rates on savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and U.S. Treasury securities have hurt all savers, particularly risk-averse investors.

Retirees are, of course, the poster children for risk-adverse investments, and their nest eggs have been hammered by the Fed’s policy. The Fed has said that low rates help the economic recovery. So it argues, in effect, that investors should enjoy the solid stock market returns and that savers should display a stiff upper lip. [Read More at US News…]

**Guarantees, including optional benefits, are backed by the claims-paying ability of the issuer, and may contain limitations, including surrender charges, which may affect policy values. During this segment, Dick and Eric are referring to Fixed Annuities unless otherwise specified.

4 Ways New Annuity Rules Will Help Retirees

The White House last week strongly endorsed annuities as a needed but missing piece of Americans’ retirement plans. Insurance companies and annuity trade groups had something nice to say about Washington regulators for a change. And the new rules just might set in motion some interesting retirement-plan changes.

Among financial products, annuities have long been a very hard sell. It’s easy to understand the appeal of buying Apple stock or getting in on the ground floor of Facebook’s IPO. Understanding annuities and their benefits, however, is not on the minds of many investors.

The premise of an annuity is easy to state: Give some money to an insurance company and it will make **guaranteed payments to you for the rest of your life. The money can be paid now or in the future. The payments can begin at any time the investor chooses. And the lifetime stream of income promised by an annuity can augment Social Security and help put to rest a person’s fear that he or she will run out of money before they die.

[Read More at US News…]

Annuity Guys® Video Transcript:

Dick: One thing that really gets our blood boiling, and I would have to say a lot of the folks that we speak with, is this low interest rate environment that is really being penalizing to retirees.

Eric: The unfortunate thing is you’ve got a government who is forcing low interest rates down our throat.

Dick: Why would that be to our government’s benefit, Eric?

Eric: Let’s see here. If I print cheap money, and if I don’t have to pay it back at high interest rates . . .

Dick: If I owe $16 trillion, and there’s a way I can actually manipulate and hold interest rates low, that might be a good thing for me?

Eric: Just borrowing free money. We’ve been propping up the banks and propping up and, supposedly, economy by keeping these rates low, but the return effect is we’ve taken our retirees and our savers, and we’ve thrown them under the bus.

Dick: We’ve penalized them in a major way. When you look at the financial institutions that these interest rates were put into effect, supposedly, to help and to shore-up, these financial institutions are all passing their stress tests.

Eric: They’re making money.

Dick: They’re making money; they’re coming back. There’s a few that are having a challenge, but overall, our financial system at least gives the appearance that it’s been restored to some degree.

Eric: What they did is they designed this to basically push money into the economy to make it better to borrow. Borrowing helps the economy; that’s what the theory is here.

Dick: Stimulating the economy.

Eric: If you want to borrow money right now, it’s a great time, but if you’re getting close to retirement and you’ve already saved up everything, you’re now earning next to nothing on most of your major options or your safe money options: Your CDs, your money markets, the FDIC-insured options. You’re being forced to look at other alternatives.

Dick: Our corporations are cash-rich. The banks have a lot of cash that they don’t know what to do with. The demand isn’t there to borrow the money, even though the rates are extremely low. What I believe that this is leading up to, and I think, Eric, we’ve discussed this, is that there is no short-term fix.

Eric: No. In fact, Uncle Ben Bernanke has promised us that we’re going to keep interest rates at this level at least until the beginning of 2015. We’re sitting here, years away now, and people are saying, “Are rates ever going to increase?” The crystal ball in front of us says no, because we’ve got a **guarantee, or a pledge, to keep rates at a hyper-low level.

Dick: Our government’s motivation isn’t there to stimulate and raise the rates for savings, which encourages savings and that type of thing. The more that consumers spend, the more that they borrow, the more that drives the economy, and it has that other side effect of holding the government’s borrowing costs down. When we look at Japan, we go back to 20 years of very, very low interest rate environment, and the savers over there have had . . . who knows if we’re really following that model or not, but there are some similarities there.

Eric: I’ll be honest, and Dick’s heard me say, I don’t care about Japan. I’m worried about what happens here at home.

Dick: What happens to our clients right here in Central Illinois, United States.

Eric: That’s right. We’ve got people that are constantly walking in the door. I’ve had umpteen people that are typical CD borrowers, who walk in with their hands in the air, and they go, “What can I do? What are the alternatives?”

Dick: We’ve been pretty fortunate. We’ve been able to establish at least the foundational portion of many of our clients’ portfolios in annuities, and we’ve been able to ladder those annuities and get 8% **guaranteed growth on the income base anyway. Maybe the cash accumulation isn’t growing at 8%, but their income base is growing, that they can draw their income off of. It will have a tendency to outpace or stay ahead of inflation.

Eric: Just real quickly, when we talk about laddering annuities, what we’re talking about is basically having different start-points for annuities. You may turn on Year-1 and you may wait 5 years before you turn on another, and another 10 years before you would turn on a third.

Dick: You’ve got this 8% or 7% compounding year-after-year. The longer you can stretch it out, the better. You may need some income immediately or income in 5 years, and then income in 10, in 15.

Eric: To turn those on after those have been in deferral so they have a greater compounding effect.

Dick: The other choice that we have if somebody needs income right away, is to setup some type of an immediate annuity or a hybrid annuity that will actually have some cost of living adjustment built into it.

Eric: The one thing with [inaudible: 05:11] the immediate annuities, if you start them with a cost of living adjustment, they usually start a little bit lower than those that just have a normal life expectancy.

Dick: Similarly on some of the hybrids, but there are some hybrids that will actually start about the same point and still have a cost of living adjustment built into them.

Eric: That’s what we always talk about with the client: What’s the longevity expectation? If you have a longer than normal life expectancy in your family, that’s especially the time to look at those things, because that’s [inaudible: 05:39].

Dick: You can really come out ahead. Our goal is never to do out and beat up on the insurance company, but when it comes down to . . . Eric says, “Yes we do.” When it comes down to the client or the insurance company, we’re for the client.

Eric: That’s exactly right. We want you to make the most money possible back.

Dick: If you can win against the insurance company, then obviously, longevity is one of those variables, those wildcards.

Eric: Our goal is for everybody to win. I say that facetiously. I don’t want to take the insurance company down, but that being said, I want all my clients to benefit.

Dick: To benefit in the best way possible. We really come down to, Eric, a low-rate interest environment. It’s affecting retirees all over the country, and their choices aren’t that many.

Eric: No, very limited. I don’t want to say ‘in closing,’ necessarily, but in summary . . .

Dick: It’s okay. We can close.

Eric: Look at your full range of options because of the interest rate environment. It’s not the time to be sitting on the fence, unfortunately. People keep on saying, “If I wait.’ I’ve had somebody out there waiting for 3 years now, waiting for rates to increase, and the opposite has happened.

Dick: It lost ground, and they don’t have the same options they had a few years ago.

Eric: How long can you sit in a 0.5% CD?

Dick: With 3% inflation.

Eric: Exactly. You’re losing money by putting yourself in a . . .

Dick: You’re going backwards at 2½% to 4% a year, probably.

Eric: In summary, yes. Low interest rates hurt retirees, they’re very painful, but it shouldn’t stop you from taking action and making a progressive retirement plan.

Dick: Yeah, making a good decision. Use a good financial advisor and just weigh all the options. Thank you.

Are You Too Young or Old to Purchase an Annuity?

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What is the best age to purchase an annuity?

There have been a plethora of articles and reports about unscrupulous agents who sell annuities to senior citizens who did not understand what they were buying or the contractual ramifications of their decision. Due to the publicity of many of these unfortunate events there has been a blanket statement made by many that annuities should not be purchased by any over 70….. Hogwash!

In the world of financial planning and investment advising there is a need to have safe money options regardless of age. The key relies on the fact that the financial product should provide a solution to a financial need.

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**Guarantees, including optional benefits, are backed by the claims-paying ability of the issuer, and may contain limitations, including surrender charges, which may affect policy values. During this segment, Dick and Eric are referring to Fixed Annuities unless otherwise specified.

Annuities by their name are designed to be income producing financial instruments. Yet, they can also be used effectively as estate planning tools.  Unfortunately for senior adults insurance companies safeguard themselves from bureaucratic regulators by limiting annuity purchase ages – most companies would rather err on the side of not selling an annuity to someone approaching or exceeding eighty years old than to risk being accused of an unsuitable sale by a regulator even if the annuity would be a great benefit to the purchaser.

Why wouldn’t an eighty two year old on their own or with their families consent buy an annuity when they want safety of principal, a higher growth potential than the local bank, a 5 to 10% bonus and all of the account value to bypass probate and go directly to their heirs with no surrenders or penalties? The main reason is that senior citizens are discriminated against by overzealous regulators that in the name of protection have caused the door to be shut on this legitimate purpose for annuities in estate planning.

It should be noted that the age limiting also applies to younger individuals. We have seen insurance companies pull back on benefit eligibility for younger individuals which seem “to promise to much” based on today’s interest rate environment when these benefits are extrapolated out over a younger person’s lifetime.

So again, what is the best age…

The most common age tends to be between 45 and 65. However, it depends on the type of annuity and your planned retirement age. Our most common experience has been to start utilizing annuities in retirement planning 1-15 years prior to retirement. Annuities excel at keeping retirement dollars safe and secure while providing growth for retirement income. We often discuss with clients that they should consider annuities for their income foundation or “If they cannot afford to lose principal” or if they “do not have the time to recover from losses in riskier financial choices” — then annuities are always prudent alternative for consideration.

It seems that every month or so I see a newspaper and magazine financial writer that writes a column gets asked a question like, “I’m 70 years old and my advisor wants me to by a (fixed, variable, hybrid) annuity, should I do this?” I’m sorry, but no columnist can effectively answer that question in 300 words or less, unless his/her answer is “it depends.” It’s not uncommon for retirees to live into their 90’s – and a 70 year old with a family history of longevity may be a candidate for an annuity if they have a concern about outliving their money. It should be part of the discussion – if it fits the need.

 So if I’m in my 20-40’s then I should not consider an annuity… right?

For younger individuals two key elements need to be part of the consideration when discussing if an annuity is a valid option. First, what are they giving up and at what cost? Younger clients who are disciplined enough to make regular contributions into an investment can benefit from dollar cost averaging. Also, they have the advantage of time — the longer the time before the dollars are needed the more likely they are to benefit from the volatile upside of some of the riskier investments. Second, how do they handle the loss of principal? Can they continue to invest into a financial product that may not always consistently grow? If they cannot stomach a loss then other safe money options like annuities should be part of the discussion.

Get Good Advice

In closing, we encourage you to get good advice. Find a financial professional that will listen to your needs and then work with you to find proper solutions. Ultimately it will be you who makes the decision on what to do with your dollars. Do not make decisions based upon a newspaper article or what your neighbor just did that sounds so great. Work with someone who has your goals in mind and you have a much better chance of meeting your retirement target.

Eric: Today, we’re going to talk about what is the best age to purchase an annuity. Now Dick, I see it in the newspaper all the time, “Dear Abby,” well Dear Abby isn’t quite right, but a financial columnist gets the question, “Dear, Dick; I’m 70-years-old. My financial adviser wants me to buy an annuity. Is this a good recommendation?”

Annuity Guys® Video Transcript:

Dick: Absolutely, if you’re 70-years-old, you should never buy an annuity.

Eric: Now 70 and a day, you’re okay.

Dick: Or what about 69 and a half?

Eric: Okay, that’s fine.

Dick: You know really folks; this is the problem with columnists and 300 word articles or whatever. They don’t really take your individual situation into account and where one 70-year-old buying an annuity could be completely the wrong thing, you know Eric we’ve seen that, on the other hand there are other 70-year-olds that have a unique situation, where an annuity could be the exact perfect answer for them.

Eric: Age; we hate to say age doesn’t matter, because really it comes into play in a certain aspect, but it’s all about longevity, expectations, and partly being part of your financial plan.

Dick: Right. If you want to get money over to heirs, maybe your children, you want that money to be safe. You want it to have better earning potential maybe than what the banks could give you.

Eric: Right now, that doesn’t take a whole lot.

Dick: It doesn’t take much. So there could be many of those factors. You want to avoid probate; that could be a good reason to consider an annuity for that purpose.

Eric: Exactly. So the blanket statement to say, “I’m too old for an annuity,” is not the right way of saying it. Now there are certain considerations. I would say as far as liquidity as far as what’s a sound investment, you have to trust the decisions, and that the people you’re working with are giving you good advice. If you ever don’t feel comfortable with any financial advice, get a second opinion.

Dick: And this is where I’ve had taken issue anyway, with some of the compliance regulations and the regulators, which they try to make it one rule fits all, and they don’t really take the individual into account. And I very frequently find that an older person is truly discriminated against, because they cannot choose what is best for their situation. The insurance companies are afraid to sell them an annuity or to allow them to purchase an annuity, because it could be looked at as something incorrect, even though for that person, it would be the very best thing in their situation.

Eric: Yeah, I think part of what happened; this is the historical perhaps side of it. There was a time when annuities were sold and the reflection was that, basically agents were just selling them because of a higher commission level. They were just going to sell them, no matter if they were the right fit or not.

Dick: Yeah, unscrupulous. Not doing the right thing. Taking advantage of people, and yet in every investment that we’ve known out there in the world of investments, there’s been someone that will take advantage of another person. So we have to be somewhat careful, and we can’t change the way the whole world, the investment world is set up. But because of that, I do feel that the protection rules have come down so strongly that now the insurance companies are afraid to sell or allow an older person to purchase an annuity.

Eric: And we’re not suggesting that if you have dementia that you should purchase an annuity. Basically, what we’re saying is that, if you’re of sound mind, and you’re making sound decisions and you understand how it fits.

Dick: And maybe even bringing the family into the decision. But even in the environment that we have now, if the family wants to come into the decision and help their 80-year-old mother purchase an annuity that would be a great thing for the family and for the goals and objectives of the client, they can’t do it.

Eric: Some insurance companies basically tie agent’s hands, based off of age. It depends on the company and what the age cutoff is.

Dick: Right, it seems like, when we get up around in that area of 78-80, in that neighborhood, it becomes pretty minimal what’s available.

Eric: Then of course there are people, I’m going to say in my age group that…

Dick: The much younger…

Eric: They’re also the discriminated against group that some of the benefits, I call them the richer benefits that are available on some annuities, the income riders. We’re actually too young. The benefits are actually too great.

Dick: The companies feel and I think that this should be a cue to some folks that are maybe a little bit more in that sweet spot, which I’m approaching, somewhere in that 50-year- old up to 65-years-old, that some of the **guarantees and that the companies feel are just a little bit too strong to offer to a younger person that could take advantage of that. So we do find this sweet spot to be somewhere between the ages of near 50, up to maybe a little over 65 or pushing 70, where an annuity can be positioned, either to start income immediately or defer it for up to 10 or 15 years.

Eric: I really like that. For me in my practice, those 10 years before retirement, it should be part of the discussion. Even if the decision is no, it should be part of what’s looked at as part of this.

Dick: I can’t tell you how many times, I know you’ve heard it over and over too. That someone has said, “I wish I would have known this ten years ago, five years ago, because why was I wasting my time?” Their money many times, hasn’t done any of the things that it needed to do, to be ready for where they are today, and they could have positioned it with contractual **guarantees, which is what annuities offer and at least that foundational portion of their income or their assets would have produced the income that they needed by this stage.

Eric: Well, and it takes some of the guess work out. If you take a portion of your retirement savings and you position it in a place where you know that you’re this age, your goal is to retire here, isn’t it nice to have predictability of what that income level is going to be at that point, and that is where it becomes part of the discussion.

Dick: So I think that truthfully, getting back to what we were discussing initially and that was too old or too young? I think that we would have to say that it depends on your unique situation. You’re never too old or too young, if it fits what you need.

Eric: That’s right. It has to be a solution to a financial problem and it’s a piece of the puzzle. If it fits it should be part of the consideration. So talk to your financial adviser. Find somebody that you trust and that you feel comfortable with and have the discussion.

Dick: That’s right. Thank you.

Annuities – Liquid or Not?

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As advisors who specialize in retirement planning one of the first questions we discuss with clients surrounds the subject of  liquidity. We need to insure that our clients are equipped for whatever financial challenges life may present them with and sometimes that means needing access to some cash quickly.

So are annuities liquid financial vehicles? Can annuities be converted to cash? Maybe — depending on the type of annuity and the timing, some annuities can be converted to cash quickly. There is really a scale of liquidity from liquid to illiquid across various annuity types with immediate annuities being illiquid while variable, fixed and hybrid annuities offer many opportunities to access cash with no penalties.

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**Guarantees, including optional benefits, are backed by the claims-paying ability of the issuer, and may contain limitations, including surrender charges, which may affect policy values. During this segment, Dick and Eric are referring to Fixed Annuities unless otherwise specified.

In a March 2012 article in Insurance News, “Debunking Annuity Objections” Sheryl Moore an objective industry expert addresses the topic of annuity liquidity. Sheryl does an excellent job articulating just how insurance companies keep annuities secure by purchasing high quality bonds whose maturities coincide with the surrender period for the purchased annuity. In addition insurance companies must also have reserves set aside that are determined by the state insurance commissions as adequate. Consequently, if an annuity is redeemed early the insurance company may be required to redeem the underlying bonds prior to maturity resulting in a financial loss to the insurance company. So as a safeguard to their financial stability the insurance companies include surrender charges to maintain their continued viability and safety for all clients involved.  Since annuities have to be reliable as long term financial vehicles for retirement, surrenders cause people to think twice before bailing out unless it is absolutely necessary, thus protecting others that remain.

It should be pointed out that cashing out an annuity is not the only way to obtain liquidity. Virtually all non – immediate annuities provide for a portion of the annuity that can be withdrawn each year without penalty – and for most annuities this amount is 10 percent of the value of the annuity annually. In addition, it is typical for annuities to provide for access to funds without penalty should the annuitant be confined to a nursing home, disability or being diagnosed as being terminally ill.

In addition, all annuities offer the option of annuitization **guaranteeing a lifetime income and most annuities pay the account value to the beneficiaries upon the death of the annuitant.

If you use an annuity or series of annuities in your retirement planning understanding how you can get access the account value should be part of the conversation with your advisor. Just know that a full pre-mature surrender is not the best or a preferred option for most annuity owners. A very small percentage of annuities are surrendered in full prior to maturity.

Annuity Guys® Video Transcript:

Eric: today’s topic is annuities, are they liquid or not?

Dick: Yeah, can we put our money into these? Are we going to lose our money or how long is it going to be gone for? How does this work, Eric?

Eric: How big is the vault that you have to put that in? Can you get into the vault? When we start talking about liquidity, and it’s one of the first questions we are typically asked or actually, we address with clients, because annuities typically are long-term.

Dick: They are. They’re long-term retirement vehicles and you shouldn’t look at them as your liquid money, even though there may be liquidity there.

Eric: Right, each type of annuity has kind of a different level of liquidity.

Dick: So let’s talk about first of all, the annuity that has no liquidity.

Eric: I was going to say medium, minimal, yeah, I always give you the little caveat there.

Dick: Minimal, there’s some liquidity there.

Eric: With an immediate annuity, you’re going to take your liquid asset really, and you’re going to give it to the insurance company in exchange for an income stream. So the problem is that lump sum is gone now, if you had to go out and salvage it, if you really think about it.

Dick: Get something out of your annuity.

Eric: You could sell it on the secondary market. You’re going to get pennies on the dollar.

Dick: It wouldn’t be a good idea, unless you really have to.

Eric: That would be a last ditch.

Dick: Effort.

Eric: Uncle Joey’s in prison, I don’t know.

Dick: Let’s not go there.

Eric: I was going to say, so just don’t even consider it as part of being sound financial planning.

Dick: Make a good plan and then you won’t need to cash that immediate annuity in.

Eric: That’s right.

Dick: Let’s talk about some annuities that are more liquid or considerably more liquid. Go ahead.

Eric: The next level is really that fixed, indexed hybrid, which is all built on that kind of fixed annuity chassis.

Dick: Fixed annuity chassis, right.

Eric: The best part about most of those and this is a typical aspect; you’re going to get a 10% after that first year. Your first year is usually for some, it’s 5.0%, for some it’s no withdrawal that first year, but typically, after that point in time you’re able to withdraw 10%.

Dick: At least by the second year, the 13th month you can take 10% out, and the beauty of that is that there’s no penalty and there’s no surrender.

Eric: So it’s actually some liquidity of what you’ve deposited. Some do it based on the account value. Some do it based off of the original deposit.

Dick: Right. So when we’re looking at this type of liquidity, again 10% is a long ways from 90% or 100% of what you actually put into the annuity, yet the idea of liquidity in an annuity is that, when you structure your financial plan properly, you’re not looking for liquidity with an annuity. That’s not the purpose of that money.

Eric: Right. Annuities are geared towards income, you know, or savings?

Dick: Or safety and giving money back to heirs.

Eric: You should know there are ways to get access to some of that cash, if you need it. But just knowing how you’re structuring your whole plan allows you to safeguard those places.

Dick: You know we talk about 10% but then there are some other provisions in an annuity, because folks, these annuities really are true retirement vehicles, and so the annuity companies look at these and say well, what would be a real emergency, a real liquid need perhaps in retirement, and one would be terminal illness. Another would be a long term care need and those all have some provisions for liquidity.

Eric: I was going to say, most annuities have those pieces built in.

Dick: You get all your money back with no penalty or surrender.

Eric: Obviously, the one that we never like to even mention necessarily, because it’s really not liquidity for you, but it’s liquidity for your heirs if you would pass, all that account value would move on to your heirs.

Dick: That’s important to know, because I have frequently sat down with someone who was just investigating annuities initially, and did not understand that those penalties and surrenders are not passed on to heirs. They get the full account value including bonuses, and there are no penalties. No surrenders.

Eric: It is a strength in the annuity system, in the sense of being able to purchase something. You may have gotten a bonus or something right up front. Those things typically, if you would pass even the second day you’ve owned it, that full account value moves on to heirs.

Dick: Now, Eric a lot of people would see this as being very counterintuitive, because I am going to make a statement here, and that statement is simply that surrenders can actually be good, and there’s a reason why surrender charges. Now, Eric says, no, never. Eric, it depends on which side of the fence you’re on.

Eric: That’s right.

Dick: If you’re the person wanting to get some money out, then you think surrenders are bad. On the other hand, if you’re the person that’s got your money long-term in an annuity, and it’s supposed to accomplish your retirement, you don’t want other people pulling their money out prematurely.

Eric: That’s correct. When you understand how insurance companies reserve for annuities and how they’re constructed, you want your company that you’re doing business with to be financially stable.

Dick: Very secure. Remain viable.

Eric: And how these annuities are constructed is once you purchase an annuity, that insurance company is going to take those dollars, and typically run down to the investment bond market.

Dick: Treasuries.

Eric: Buy high-quality bonds.

Dick: Right.

Eric: And that’s what they use to reserve your annuity. Now why is that important? If the insurance company has to go sell some of those underlying bonds early, because you’ve surrendered prior to your maturity time, they’re going to have to sell those bonds on the open market.

Dick: Perhaps take a hit and this is what some of that surrender charge offsets, but it also makes you take pause and think twice before you go cash in an annuity.

Eric: That’s where you look at it as being the surrender fees are actually part of the overall construct of the insurance companies that help them protect the system. It helps protect the entire, basically industry and what you’re protecting the people…

Dick: Ultimately, it protects the people that are insured. They’re relying on their annuity for their retirement.

Eric: So that’s where he is saying it’s a good thing, if you’re trying to get to the liquidity aspect.

Dick: Now another thing that I find very interesting that gets overlooked a lot of times is folks will think, well once that surrender period ends, which is in 10-years and that must be the end of my annuity, but it’s not. No, that’s where you now have full liquidity. You have full control over your money, but they still have contractual obligations to you.

Eric: That’s right.

Dick: When you set up the annuity originally.

Eric: That’s the key thing. The word annuity, typically in my mind, means lifetime. Once you start it, you’re into a lifetime contract. You can decide at some point…

Dick: To end it early, to walk away.

Eric: But you’ve, basically you’ve got a commitment.

Dick: You’ve got them on the hook. That’s what your contractual **guarantees do.

Eric: That’s right. The other thing we didn’t talk about as far as, another way of getting liquidity with an annuity is obviously, annuitization, any annuity can be annuitized. What does that mean? Basically, it means you’re turning it to into a lifetime income stream.

Dick: So you’re really setting a fixed annuity into what would normally be called an immediate annuity, if you purchased it right off the bat, and wanted an income stream. What we found to be very popular lately has been the hybrid annuity. The idea of the hybrid annuity is it’s kind of like you’re having your cake and eating it too. Where you can have your lifetime income, but in addition to that you’ve still have got your asset.

Eric: Dick likes to talk about this, so I’m going to put him on the hook. We talk about majority control, a lot of the times with hybrid annuities, especially. You want to kind of explain a little bit about what—when you talk about majority control.

Dick: When you first start out with an annuity obviously there are surrender charges and the surrender charges are higher in the earlier years. But even in the worst case scenario as a rule, when you subtract the bonus out, because let’s face it, if a company gives you a bonus for putting your money with them, if you take your money out early they want their bonus back. They want their money back.

So when we say majority control, that surrender charge kind of in its worst case is about 10%. So that means you literally control 90% of your principal and then you have a decreasing surrender charge over the years. So you continue to gain a higher and higher majority, until you have 100% majority control, and yet you still have contractual **guarantees that that company has to honor. So this is what we say majority control, which is the opposite with the immediate annuity, because with the immediate annuity, you’ve given up your lump sum and you have no more control over your asset. Did I do a good job?

Eric: That was it. Thank you. I think that helps people a lot of times, because when you’re thinking about, especially with liquidity if you’re looking at a hybrid annuity, really you have to understand, for the most part unless it’s a really weird contract, you’ve got at least 90% control of all the dollars from day one.

Dick: Exactly.

Eric: And so it’s a good way of thinking about it, because I’ve seen the market take a 10% dive and you lose 10% over a period of time.

Dick: Right, sure. Absolutely, and we know that that’s the beauty of an annuity is it gives you that security and safety, and it takes the volatility away of the market, and so for at least a portion of the portfolio we recommend a lot of times that that’s the foundational portion of the portfolio.

Eric: So I guess to try to sum up this topic, we would say just know that when you’re going into the annuity market that one, you’re going to have majority control in situations, and also know there is more than one way to get access to your dollars.

Dick: Yes, there are and as we kind of hinted, it’s important to not think in terms of well, taking all of my money out of the annuity at one time, but taking a 10% or what you really need, and that when you structure that annuity originally that you structure it as a long-term portion of your portfolio. Okay, folks, hopefully we’ve covered liquidity and annuities and I’m sure there is more that we could say, Eric.

Eric: Liquid or not?

Dick: Have we said enough today? We never know how to wind these up.

Eric: Ending is always the hardest part.

Dick: Thank you for watching.

Eric: Have a great day.

 

Understanding Immediate Annuities

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Today, people are living longer than ever before. While the idea of living a longer (and hopefully healthier) life is appealing to most of us, the tradeoff for many people is the fear of outliving their retirement savings.

On top of that, the immense costs of healthcare today––along with constantly rising inflation––continue to compound an already stressful situation for many. However, there is an option available to retirees that can help ease the stress of outliving their savings while providing them with an income stream almost immediately upon funding it. That financial vehicle is an immediate annuity.

While many annuities are created to build up the account value for retirement, an immediate annuity is actually designed to provide income immediately to its holder.

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**Guarantees, including optional benefits, are backed by the claims-paying ability of the issuer, and may contain limitations, including surrender charges, which may affect policy values. During this segment, Dick and Eric are referring to Fixed Annuities unless otherwise specified.

Immediate annuities are insurance products that pay their owners a regular income––monthly, quarterly, or over another desired time frame––for as long as the annuity holder lives.

These products are essentially a contract between the annuity owner and an insurance company. They are typically purchased with a large cash lump sum by retirees in order to pay living expenses in a reliable pension style INCOME over a long period of time. In exchange for this lump sum deposit, the insurance company will provide them with a regular income for a specified time OR long as they live, regardless of how long that may be.

Plus, if it is a lifetime annuity, this benefit will continue for as long as the single or joint annuitant is living. Therefore, an immediate annuity actually pays for living a long life instead of the emphasis being on heirs receiving a large payout when the immediate annuity owner dies. It is possible for the immediate annuity owner’s heirs to receive some of the deceased owners intended income if he or she should die prematurely.

Immediate Annuity Features

Throughout the years, there have been some modifications to the original immediate annuity design. Many of these annuity features, which may or may not be available on all immediate annuities, or offered by all insurance companies, are discussed below:

Inflation protection: With this option, the immediate annuity income payments offer some form of a hedge against inflation. Here, the annuity owner may choose to have his or her income payments increase by a certain percentage each year, typically around 3 percent. Another choice may be to have the annuity income payments actually tied to an inflation rate by the use of a consumer price index. When this option is chosen the initial payout of the annuity starts lower.

Refund, liquidity, and withdrawal options: The traditional refund feature on immediate annuities has typically been either a cash refund or an installment refund that ensures after the annuity holder’s death that the beneficiary will receive an amount of money that represents the difference between the initial deposit amount and the amount of the income payments that the annuitant received during his or her life. This, however, reduces the amount of the systematic payout when comparing to life only with no beneficiary benefit.

There are several different ways to structure an immediate annuity with regard to the income payment options. These options include:

Life only: A life-only immediate annuity can also be referred to as a straight life annuity. This means that the annuitant will receive annuity income payments for the rest of his or her life, regardless of how long that duration may be. The payments will cease and all of the unused initial premium will be to the insurance company’s benefit or detriment based upon the annuitant’s actual death and life expectancy underwriting calculations.

Certain period: This structure is not considered to be a life annuity. Rather, the annuity payments will only go on for a fixed period of time, such as for ten years. Even if the annuitant is still living at the end of the stated time period, the annuity payments will cease at that time. However, should the annuitant pass away within that time period, the beneficiary will continue to receive the payments until the period of time has expired.

Life with period certain (or certain and life): This type of immediate annuity payment structure is a combination of both the life and the certain period structures, meaning the annuity will pay income benefits to the annuitant for as long as he or she lives. However, if the annuitant passes away during a specified period of time, say ten years, then the beneficiary will continue to receive income payments from the annuity until the end of that ten-year time period.

Life with cash refund: This can be considered a money-back **guarantee annuity. The income benefit payout is for life. However, if the annuitant passes away before the payments that total at least the amount of premium paid, then a lump sum payment is made to the annuitant’s beneficiary.

Life with installment refund: This, too, can be considered a money-back **guarantee annuity. This immediate annuity payout option is similar to the life with cash refund option, except the annuitant’s beneficiary will continue to receive the monthly annuity income instead of a lump sum until the full amount of the premium has been paid out.

Joint and survivor: This annuity income payout option will **guarantee that the income payments will continue for the lives of both annuitants. Along with this, period certain options can also be added. This particular payout option is typically used with married couples in order to provide income as long as either one of them is still alive. In some instances, the income benefit may drop when the first spouse passes away.

COLA SPIA: This annuity income payout structure has payments that increase or decrease by a floating percentage which fluctuates when tied to a consumer price index, each year. In this case, however, the initial income benefit will likely be lower than those that are non-COLA (cost of living adjustment) annuities.

Annuity Guys® Video Transcript:

Dick: Today, we want to talk about immediate annuities and do a little comparison with immediate annuities and why you might consider an immediate annuity.

Eric: One of the things we often hear, in today’s world, where you have this hybrid annuity, which gives you lifetime income as well as some other bonuses/extras, why would you ever want to actually look at using an immediate annuity, where you’re going to give up your assets?

Dick: Right. That is the difference, Eric. When we think about the hybrid annuity, it’s kind of your cake and eat it too annuity, where you can get your lifetime income, but you don’t have to give up your asset. Yet, there is a place for an immediate annuity.

In fact, let’s do a little history lesson. How about some trivia here? When we think about an immediate annuity, it literally goes back to the early Roman Empire. They called it the “annua,” and that’s where the word annuity comes from. So it is a very early form of an annuity, and it has really gone through the test of time, spanned the centuries.

Eric: So next time you have your toga on, you’ll know to get your annua language out. Exactly. It’s an old standard. It was the first kind of annuity out there, the standard lifetime annuity. You gave up a lump sum, and you got a lifetime income stream.

Dick: It is probably the truest pension-style income. In fact, immediate annuities, a lot of companies will offer a choice of a lump some or an immediate annuity.

Eric: I talked about immediate annuities with a lot of clients, when they were saying, “Hey, I’ve got a 401(k). I want a lifetime income. What can I do to get my own personal pension?” That’s kind of how we think of it. The thing is you’re usually giving up that 401(k) in exchange for that lifetime income stream. Now, the big thing here is you realize that none of those dollars are going on to heirs.

Dick: Yes. Well, in a true pension, there’s no money in a pension, as a rule. When you have a pension, when you pass, the money ends, or if you’ve chosen a survivorship option, you’ve probably taken a little bit lower payment on your pension, and then some of those payments will go on to perhaps a spouse.

Eric: Exactly. When I grew up, my parents were educators. So they had a traditional kind of benefit program, where they have a retirement that’s there as long as they live. The bad thing is, once they’re gone, nothing goes on to me. Being a little self-serving here now. The 401(k) plan . . .

Dick: Why didn’t they get a hybrid annuity?

Eric: Exactly. Why can’t they get a hybrid annuity? So when they’re looking at it, that’s the old style. The hybrid, on the other hand, allows you to pass some of those dollars on to heirs typically.

Dick: Right. So, really, where the immediate annuity fits, let’s just give some examples. Someone who really wants to start income right now.

Eric: With an traditional immediate annuity, typically you’re going to get a higher payout than you would with a hybrid. You’re going to start with a little bit higher. . .

Dick: Typically. But we have seen a few instances where . . . you’ve got to run some illustrations to know.

Eric: Exactly. So that’s one of the things that when people are going that direction, that’s usually the reason.

Dick: General assumption is you’re going to get more income.

Eric: A little bit more. A higher percentage to start with.

Dick: Right. Then the other key factor would be that, perhaps, if you’re going to use an immediate, you really aren’t as concerned about giving money over to heirs.

Eric: Right. Are there ways to get money on to either survivors or heirs? That’s one of the things we . . .

Dick: With an immediate?

Eric: An immediate annuity. You can structure it so that it’s a joint lifetime payout. So if you and a spouse purchase an immediate annuity, you can set it up so that it is the lifetime of both of you or either of you. Whoever lives the longest, those payments will continue. There are little tweaks that you can even do there, where you can set it up so that once one passes, it sometimes reduces by a percentage.

Dick: A percentage, so they only get three-quarters or one half of the annuity.

Eric: Right. The other way that you can somewhat pass on dollars to heirs is there are a couple of things. You can do a period certain, where it’s lifetime with a certain number of years **guaranteed. A lot of times you’ll see somebody do a lifetime annuity with 20 years **guaranteed. So that 20 years of payments is **guaranteed.

Dick: So if I pass in 5 years, somebody is going to get another 15 years of payments. But what does that do to my income?

Eric: It’s going to reduce your payments. You have to realize going in, if your goal is the highest payout possible, you don’t want to add any of these other pieces. But if you’re wanting to try to pass on money to somebody, that’s a way of **guaranteeing basically that some of that comes back. One of the things I always look at is either the installment refund or the cash refund, which says once you purchase the immediate annuity, if you haven’t gotten back at least what you paid in principal wise, that amount will be refunded either to your heirs or to your estate.

Dick: Well, isn’t that the installment refund?

Eric: The installment refund keeps the payments coming back to your return of principal.

Dick: Okay. So you’re talking about the full lump sum.

Eric: Yes, just a refund of whatever you’ve put in, so it’s either a lump sum or installment refund.

Dick: One of the biggest vulnerabilities that Eric and I look at with our clients, and what we think you should be concerned about, is inflation. That is probably one of the biggest vulnerabilities we face. We have had historic inflation the last 4 decades of over 4%. We believe that the stage is really set for some higher inflation over the next two or three decades, which is going to cover most retirees. So if we would happen to go through a stretch of 4% or 5% – I’m not talking about runaway hyper third world country inflation – but if we’re talking 4%, 4.5%, 5%, 6% inflation, that makes that immediate annuity, if you have no inflation cost of living adjustment, a COLA on it, it really puts you at a disadvantage.

Eric: Yes, especially if you’ve got longevity in what you’re looking at. You realize you’re taking a level payment and you’re stretching it over your lifetime. So your purchasing power is going to diminish with inflation.

Dick: Right. So one of the things that we do suggest, very strongly, is that whatever type of annuity, whether it’s an immediate annuity, a hybrid annuity, a deferred annuity where you’re deferring it for a long time, that you’re really taking inflation into account. There are different ways to structure for inflation, but if you’re not taking it into account, you’re really setting yourself up for a bad situation.

Eric: Right. That’s another aspect that you can add to an immediate annuity. Some of them you can add a cost of living adjustment. Others have a fixed percentage.

Dick: Tied to a consumer price index or a fixed percentage.

Eric: So those are things you can add, but you realize you’re going to start lower.

Dick: Your payments are going to start lower. Right.

Eric: So it’s all about the tradeoffs.

Dick: I love the idea of a real cost of living adjustment. So if things get carried away and we start seeing 5% or 6% inflation, we’ve covered a major vulnerability in a retirement plan.

Eric: Yes. That’s what we’re looking at here. When we’re looking at immediate annuities, we’re looking at you creating your own personal pension.

Dick: Yes, that’s right.

Eric: If you’re into this marketplace, where you’re going to create a personal pension, and you have that magic number you know that you need to hit and you can anticipate the growth, that’s where this product really comes in.

Dick: So if we’re to kind of wind up this discussion on immediate annuities, being a true pension-style income, where would we summarize that this is going to fit? What type of person should buy an immediate annuity, should really consider it for their retirement portfolio?

Eric: I always say it’s someone with no heirs, that doesn’t have to worry about passing on dollars to somebody in the future. They’re not worried about that. They want the highest payout now, and that’s really the person that I start with.

Dick: Right. I think that, in winding this up, we just want to say, do a fair comparison. You may be the ideal person for an immediate annuity, but get with a professional advisor, run some illustrations, compare it. We have actually seen situations where a hybrid annuity can right off the bat outperform an immediate annuity. It’s not often, but it does happen.

Eric: Yes. Very good.

Dick: Thank you.

How Much Income Can You Withdraw Safely in Retirement?

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A Reuter’s article hit our desk recently. It’s based on a “safe withdrawal rate” during retirement (safe being relative since we’re talking about the stock market) and how that percentage is trending down.

Here’s a direct quote from the article:

“Some financial firms have considered lowering their recommended withdrawal rate to 3 percent but have found it hard to gain traction. That’s a safer rate, concedes T Rowe Price spokeswoman Heather McDonold, but it may be difficult and unrealistic for some folks.”

We might even agree with T Rowe Price’s statement for those individuals who are fully invested in the market. However, some of the other statements have us really “steaming,” not because they are lies necessarily, but they could be disastrous advice for some retirees.

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The article quotes a “pioneer of the safe withdrawal methodology,” William Bengen who goes on to state that retirees can increase their withdrawal percentage to 4.5 percent if they include small stocks in their portfolio. He does not discuss volatility or the increased risk associated with this strategy. Failure to address risk or proper allocation could lead consumers and readers down an unrealistic and tumultuous path.

One of the biggest oversights of the article is the failure to mention the use of annuity allocations to **guarantee a larger withdrawal percentage than what can typically be done safely with a portfolio consisting of stocks and bonds.

Annuities typically offer withdrawal rates in the range of 4 to 8 percent depending on age; and the income from these products are the result of contractual **guarantees on lifetime income.

By utilizing annuities to secure the foundational income amount needed individuals and couples can then afford to take more risk with their discretionary dollars to capture higher potential returns. Retirement planning to accomplish goals and secure a safe secure income should be done with the assistance of a financial professional who can help you examine your assets and guide you in the process.

Failure to Plan is most likely a Plan to Fail!

Annuity Guys® Video Transcript:

Dick: Well, Eric, we’ve got a fun topic today.

Eric: Fun for some. If you’re that close to retirement and you’re starting to think about, “Gee, how much can I pull out?”

Dick: Right. Well and that’s really one of the jobs that we have as financial people to help our clients know what they can spend, and so that you don’t feel guilty about it and you know what you’re secure spending.

Eric: What’s the magic number? There are the old standards and when you start talking about withdrawal rates in retirement the old standard is 4.0%. I should say that’s been the standard since I’ve been in the business. At one point in time, I know it was 5.0%. Now it’s down to 4.0%

Dick: We’ve recently been backing it down to about 3.50%.

Eric: Now the chatter is, “Oh, maybe 3.50%.” There’s an interesting Reuters article that highlights it. In fact, they even mention here that there’s somebody that says maybe 1.50% in this low interest rate. How do you pick what’s that magic number, so that you can make sure you don’t outlive your income?

Dick: I think Eric, one of the things that we want to establish is that there are really two– there are probably more than two ways, but there are two, kind of obvious, different ways. Let’s call one the Wall Street way.

Eric: The “oops” method.

Dick: Yeah, “oops.”

Eric: And I kid, but there’s nothing better than your broker calling you up and saying, “Oops, we ran out of money.” I’m not saying that’s likely, but when you’re invested in it…

Dick: Or it’s dropped so much that you better back off on income for we don’t know how long.

Eric: The annuity method is more of a foundational plan. That is not to say that it’s the, be all and end all, but it’s a great way to protect the base line of what your income is.

Dick: So incorporating annuities, we look at in our planning, as more of a foundational part of the overall income plan, and yet when I read this Reuters article, I think we should spend a little more time on that and talk about it. I think, folks you want to look at that article and read it, because it does have some enlightening aspects to it. But they’re taking the Wall Street way and there is no mention at all of the possibility of using annuities for the foundational portion of your portfolio. It’s all in on securities and the right mix of securities and different strategies for pulling money out.

Eric: I find there are certain things in this article that I’ll be honest, actually frustrate me a little bit, because when it comes to, when people read something they tend to believe it, because it’s in print. There’s a guy here and I don’t know William Bengen, pioneer of safe withdrawal rate methodology. And one of the things he talks about is utilizing smaller stocks, small cap stocks to increase return, so that you can withdraw more of your money. Now my understanding of the market and small cap stocks, they tend to be a bit more volatile. There’s definitely the potential for that growth, but there’s also that potential for that drop.

Dick: Right. So you’ve got a corresponding risk and we would tend to think, when a client is in that type of an investment, that they’re taking on more risk. So when I look at, in all fairness what he’s suggesting in this article is that you pull back when your stocks are down and you increase what you take out when your stocks are up. But that doesn’t seem to work for our clients I mean as a whole. We might have a couple of clients that are in that discretionary where they could just be that flexible, but most people have a budget.

Eric: Yes. They have a minimum living standard, that they have that meet their basic necessities and if you can’t beat/meet those basic necessities, this doesn’t work. That choice doesn’t work. I think the best bet is truly a blending of the two methods, using a foundation building piece, whether it be an annuity or Social Security. Something that **guarantees that coverage across, and usually it’s a combination of multiple pieces that gets you there, and then you can use an equities based model, to increase and use that for a hedge for inflation, perhaps.

Dick: That would be your discretionary money. You know when I look at AARP, they put some information out on this but they also, in what I’ve read, they’re taking more of a Wall Street methodology in terms of without looking at annuities, saying take out a 4.0% rate of withdrawal. When you start looking at that, if you’re pulling that out at the wrong time, you’re going to have what’s called an unfavorable sequence of returns and you can really get into trouble.

Eric: We always talked about dollar cost averaging, when you’re buying in. You’re more likely to hit buying in at more low times over the course of a period of time, than you are high times. So it’s advantageous to keep doing it in regular intervals. Well, guess what? When you start making withdrawals, the same is true. You’re more likely to hit those consistent low periods, so you’re actually hurting yourself when you start pulling money out during those low periods.

Dick: Right. You have to be very, very careful. I know I’ve run some scenarios, and some modeling of you know, if you were pulling money out during certain years and sometimes just missing it by a couple of years. Like, if you started your withdrawals back in 1975, and you were pulling out a certain amount over a certain period of time, your portfolio would tend to look pretty good over an extended period of time. But if you just started in 1973, when there were a couple of bad years unexpectedly, you would have wiped your portfolio out in a much shorter time, 15-20 years.

Eric: Especially early on, when this unfavorable order of sequences or returns rather, is early on in your retirement those things can be devastating. I think what we’re looking at here as well we’re saying, guidance. Its take some of the guesswork out. Know that you’ve got a piece there that takes care of it. The standard bearers here for the market methodology, they’re giving you guidance, but you have to decide if you need to be more conservative or more aggressive or if you need a blend of the two to make yourself feel comfortable.

Dick: Eric, when we go into annuities it’s a completely different world, because we’re looking at contractual **guarantees. There’s no market fluctuation in the income side with contractual **guarantees. So we can help a client not only know what they’re going to have. But we can typically get a much higher withdrawal rate than what AARP and Reuters and certain financial advisers out there are recommending, and people are somewhat surprised by that. When we initially show them what they can pull out of their account, and pull out safely with contractual **guarantees.

Eric: That’s all about preserving your lifestyle, your standard of living. Knowing that you’re going to do it regardless of how long you live. I think those are the pieces that for me, I take solace when I’m working with somebody, knowing that we’ve protected a lifetime of foundation. I love working with people in the market, but we realized that they were going after potential gains, you know?

We’re not getting **guarantees, those are not contractual **guarantees. There are things that we’re doing, typically to combat inflation, get some of those consistent gains. We’re talking about asset allocation, not just being in the equities market, so obviously when we see somebody advocating for small cap stocks, it gets my blood a little boiling, because it can be a piece of it but you don’t…

Dick: It sounds good just to read it, but when you actually look at that and look at the possible negative side of that, it’s not very pretty. So again one of the things, I think that we want to stress Eric, and just for you folks to give a little better understanding of what’s possible with contractual **guarantees. Typically when you’re around 60-years-old, we can get out kind of on a minimal basis for joint income, for a husband and a wife, somewhere around 4.50%, if it’s a single person, maybe closer to 5.0%. Then add to that, there are some ways to structure annuities so that you can get an inflation hedge, and if that is done properly we’ve been able to show illustrations right from the company, where after 20 years they’d be pulling out what, Eric?

Eric: We’ve actually seen withdrawals as high as 9.0%.

Dick: Right, in that range.

Eric: Obviously caps have changed, and things are a little bit more– not quite as the participation rates and those things have pulled things back, so we don’t anticipate if things stay where they are today you would necessarily get that, but…

Dick: But it could still be up in the 7.0-7.50-8.0-8.50%. So again, what we’re talking about here is that you start off with, say half a million dollars, and you start off by pulling out, say $25,000 a year and within 20 years to maybe, within 30 years-time, you’re pulling out almost double that, so instead of $25,000, you’re pulling out nearly $50,000.

Eric: Each year.

Dick: Right and so you may have used all your money. You may have spent it.

Eric: It’s not a plan that is designed for giving money to the heirs.

Dick: Giving a lot of money back to the kids, unless it’s the early years. The early years you could die unexpectedly, the kids could get a lot of money.

Eric: Right, so it is that. But we like this a lot for hedging against inflation, and basically taking care of your standard of living, that gets those bumps each year.

Dick: Right and that protects other assets, if you’ve got that foundational income, so those assets can grow and go on to the kids. So yeah, there are a lot of things that you can do. You don’t have to look at the annuity way, as the only way. You don’t have to look at the Wall Street way, as the only way. The best is to blend those into a very balanced allocation strategy and balanced portfolio.

Eric: Yes, it’s all about planning. You know you have to plan to succeed. What’s the saying?

Dick: If you don’t, if you plan to, I can’t even say it now. Plan to fail or fail to plan.

Eric: If you fail to plan, you plan to fail and I guess that’s the summary statement for today.

Dick: Yeah.

Fixed Index Annuity Returns Reviewed

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Dick and Eric take a look at the Wharton study and what it means for anyone considering a fixed index annuity as the chassis for the hybrid annuity.

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**Guarantees, including optional benefits, are backed by the claims-paying ability of the issuer, and may contain limitations, including surrender charges, which may affect policy values. During this segment, Dick and Eric are referring to Fixed Annuities unless otherwise specified.

In 2010 the Wharton Financial Institutions Center updated their published study on the empirical performance of fixed index annuities based upon the products offered and the actual interest credited. What Jack Marrion, Geoffrey VanderPal and David Babbel found was ground breaking and eye opening for many in the financial world.

Their findings dismissed most of the previous studies concerning fixed index annuities due to erroneous findings based upon hypothetical data and non-valid assumptions. What the Wharton Study found was that during specific time periods fixed index annuities actually performed competitively with alternative portfolios of stocks and bonds.

Index annuities were originally introduced in the United States approximately twenty years ago as an alternative to mutual fund^s. These annuities allow their holders to participate in growth from stock market indexes, yet prevent the risk of loss to the annuity owner’s principal in years when these popular indices produce a loss. This type of annuity has produced much higher annuity rates or interest crediting than traditional fixed annuities.

Due to this feature, money flowed very quickly into these types of annuities during the Great Recession of 2008-2009. In fact, according to LIMRA over 30 billion dollars flowed into fixed index annuities during both 2010 & 2011 and now represent 41 percent of fixed annuities sold annually (LIMRA, 2-16-12).

Why would money flow into financial instruments in such a volatile environment? Fixed index annuities during their history have actually performed competitively and even outperformed popular market indexes during period of high volatility.

To quote the Wharton study, “How will index annuities perform in the future? We do not know but the concept has proven to work in the past and any articles should reflect this. FIAs were not designed to be direct competitors of index investing nor have FIAs been promoted to provide returns to compete with equity mutual fund^s or ETFs. The FIA is designed for safety of principal with returns linked to upside market performance.”

Annuity Guys® Video Transcript:

DICK: You know we’re here today to talk about the Wharton Study and Eric, before we get into the Wharton Study here and I know this kind of ties into it, but let’s just talk about fixed index annuities, which is what the Wharton Study is about. Let’s talk about the popularity of fixed index annuities in recent years.

ERIC: Well, it comes into why did we decide on this topic today? Just recently LIMRA came out and gave us some of the tallies from 2011 about what the most popular annuities and the flavors of annuities that were out there, were and of the fixed annuity chassis, so to speak, of that flavor indexed annuities amounted for 44% of the sales in the fixed annuity chassis world, which was over $30 billion, about $32 billion in sales of fixed index annuities.

DICK: And that’s been going on for the last couple of years.

ERIC: Yes, they’ve been increasing popular ever since they kind of came into existence in 1995. They’ve kind of gradually built, built, built and now they’re pretty consistent at being over $30 million in sales.

DICK: Yep, which is very good, and one thing I’d like to do is maybe tie that back into the Wharton Study, which we were talking about. We’ve got up on the board and he’s sitting in front of us. The Wharton Study folks, if you haven’t read it yet, it’s available in our annuity reviews blog, so you can get the link there.

But you might find it to be good reading, because it actually takes what was just assumptions that were maybe based on erroneous types of assumptions and actually brings it down to real data, so that we can actually look at fixed annuities and compare it even to the popular indexes like the S&P 500, and just see how it really performed.

ERIC: Well, and I like some of the fascinating statistics they toss in there. They look at indexed annuities being part of an index and one of the things they analyze and they break down is the Russell 3000, and I just find that index comparison fascinating, because they say the Russell 3000 takes into account 98% of the stocks that are out there. They said that when they looked at their analysis between 1983 and 2006, that has 98%t of the stocks, publicly held in that index.

DICK: Yes.

ERIC: Of that and this is the fascinating statistics for me, 40% of those stocks had a negative return during that time period, 20% lost all their value, while about 10% gained over about 500%. So and what their determination was, when they said you’re better off picking the index because you’re going to cover all those bases. You’re either going to get those big returns, and if you’re picking individual stocks…

DICK: Well, you could be on either side. And the chances are much more likely to be on the downside.

ERIC: You can hit the home run or you can hit the strikeout, and you’re back on the bench.

DICK: Right, let’s talk about the last decade or so, 10-12 years. What we call the lost decade, and how did fixed indexed annuities; I’m asking a rhetorical question here; but how did fixed indexed annuities compare to let’s say, the S&P 500 during that let’s say the first decade of the 21st century?

ERIC: If you take the decade as a whole, you know, everyone kind of looks at the 2000 to 2010, you know the S&P was basically flat.

DICK: Right, we call it the lost decade.

ERIC: There was nothing there, but if you were in the indexed world you got good returns.

DICK: And when we’re saying the indexed world, we’re talking about fixed indexed annuity world.

ERIC: Right, in this case we’re talking about it from an indexing standpoint, because of how indexing works, you get the gains and then you lock them in. Get the gains. Lock them in. Now when the losses come, you’re locked in so you don’t take that that bad.

That’s what we call zero is your hero. We’ve kind of talked about that a couple times and that’s where this comes in and it points out, the Wharton Study points out that, because you’re not having those big drops, you’re returns over a period of time, were actually pretty good. Are we predicting future performance with this kind of study?

DICK: It’s going to outperform the market in a good market? I would say no. But on the other hand, I’ve had a lot of folks that have actually sat down and we’ve talked about that difficult time like with the S&P and the major indexes. When we look at the fixed indexed annuity and we look at several of the different annuities that have performed during that time and it’s more now in the Wharton Study, is that they also outperformed those indexes.

The reason they could do it is, just what you were explaining and that is because when the index drops dramatically with a fixed indexed annuity that actually locks in all the gains that it’s had. It might just have a zero; no increase in that particular year, but now it’s locked in at a new low. So what happens the next year? The market goes up. Maybe the market doesn’t go up enough to make up all that it lost, but any gain that it has a portion of that goes to the fixed indexed annuity.

ERIC: Right, so you’re interest in crediting, coming off of a bad year is a good thing.

DICK: Is a good thing, right. So that in essence that allows it in extreme volatility or flat or down to actually produce a real return, where the market can’t produce a return, but the fixed indexed annuity can. Let’s talk a little bit about the way that a fixed indexed annuity actually is able to accomplish this. I mean a little bit of the inner workings, the mechanics of it.

ERIC: I’m not a brain surgeon, but I can tell you that they utilize options, put options, and call options.

DICK: Well, call options is what they’re using.

ERIC: Primarily, to basically buy pennies on the dollar. You’re buying the indexed, the strategies of the indexing, so you’re buying pennies on the dollar and if you get the gains, you get big returns and if you get losses, they expire or basically become worthless.

DICK: Right, exactly. They allow the options to expire for pennies on the dollar and these large companies are in a position to have the type of financial management, to continue to manage money in this way. And let me also take this in the other sense of the safety of the annuity.

The actual premium that’s put into the annuity is fully **guaranteed, in the sense that it’s invested in treasuries, investment grade bonds, very high-quality investment instruments, so that it can **guarantee that the principal will be safe, and that there’ll be a minimum return. It’s **guaranteed by fixed indexed annuity company, even if the market doesn’t perform or the call options don’t perform.

ERIC: They’re using the power of leverage. I mean it really is that way, that’s how they’re making those dollars and bringing those returns, those interest crediting back to you.

DICK: And now we do know that the fixed indexed annuity performed very well during what we call the lost decade, and actually outperformed many of the indexes that it was being used to measure against. I can see why that drove a lot of business into the fixed indexed annuity market. Now as of late, of the last couple of years what we’ve experienced has been lower caps, and yet fixed indexed annuities have continued to sell like crazy. People have continued to pour money into these, to the tune of $30 billion, last year $32 billion.

ERIC: And I will tell you it’s just another safe money alternative, when you compare it to money market accounts, CD account, but your opportunity for growth, we never thought 3.0% sounded like a slam dunk, but 3.0% is a great return, when your CDs are paying a .50%, your money markets are paying a .75%. Three percent, all you need is one good year to get you a 3.0% return, and it kicks the butt of anything that you had from the bank.

DICK: Well, and then we come into this whole hybrid annuity concept, where it uses the fixed indexed annuity chassis and then it has this innovative income rider on it that **guarantees 8.0% compounding. Because what we find, Eric in our practice, is that many of our clients actually need income.

ERIC: Right. We should say that the 8.0% is not on every annuity rider.

DICK: Yeah, well, 7.0-8.0%, some of them the lowest are 6.0% on some of them.

ERIC: The riders out there in deferral are what you can use to **guarantee income and that is a huge predictability for retirement income, and so when people are looking at a fixed indexed annuity and then taking in that additional rider option, it becomes a very powerful thing and even compounds what they found in the Wharton Study.

DICK: Right, right and I do believe from everything that I read and see and hear that, as we have more and more baby boomers they’re coming into retirement and they have to have answers for secure income. What we would call a pension style foundation to the portfolio that annuities are going to continue to be a viable answer in that area.

ERIC: We’re seeing more and more endorsements. We’re seeing them endorsed by the government, endorsed by people like ourselves, who are retirement planners, and basically becoming a large portion of what you should utilize, perhaps as part of your retirement.

DICK: As a portion of your portfolio. Well, I think that we’ve covered the Wharton Study in the sense of the general idea of what it’s about and really want to encourage you to check it out.

ERIC: Check it out. Yeah, check it out online. We’re more than happy to put a link out there on our site, so take a look.

DICK: Thank you.

Annuity Fees – The Nasty Truth

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The conventional press has maligned annuities for years due to high fees and surrender charges, as well they should… when they exist. Confused yet?  You should be. We have all heard the saying about throwing out the baby with the bath water and the same can be said about annuities. If we group all annuities into the “high fee” category we will be throwing out the baby.

Before we continue our thoughts we must express what we feel is obvious. All financial products have a cost of doing business whether it is a reduction of dividends returned, a fee or a charge. Financial professionals, investment and insurance companies are all compensated for their efforts in assisting you. So as we proceed we are not seeking to find the “free lunch” financial product – we are trying to make sure that you understand what you are paying so that you can make the determination as an informed consumer.

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**Guarantees, including optional benefits, are backed by the claims-paying ability of the issuer, and may contain limitations, including surrender charges, which may affect policy values. During this segment, Dick and Eric are referring to Fixed Annuities unless otherwise specified.

Dick and Eric discuss annuity fees and some of the hazards and misconceptions of with differing types of annuities.

Annuities come in many “Flavors”

A trip to your local financial professional to select an annuity can seem a lot like a visit to Baskin Robbins… you may end up wishing there were only 31 flavors.

Let start on the most basic level (the chocolate, vanilla & strawberry if you will), here we have variable, immediate and fixed annuities. Variable annuities have fees… lots of them typically. Fixed and immediate annuities typically do not have any fees or charges.

Variable Annuities

Variable annuities all have at the very least mortality and/or expense charges (M&E). This fee pays for the insurance **guarantee, commissions, selling, and administrative expenses of the contract.

Variable Annuity Fee Guide

Annual fee (as % of account value) for:NumberTypical
The insurance (M&E)_____%

1.35%

The investments within the annuity_____%

0.95%

Riders and options_____%

0.65%

Total annual fee:_____%

2.95%

What you pay to get out
Surrender charge (as % of withdrawal)_____%

7%

Years before surrender charge expires_____

8

 

Your next questions should be, “What do I get for paying this fee?”  You usually get an added death benefit that basically **guarantees that your account will hold a certain value if you die before the annuity payments begin. This typically means that your beneficiary will at least receive the total amount invested even if the account has lost money.

The other expenses in the M&E are just truly that – expenses.

In addition to M&E expenses variable annuities# (VA) also have management fees on subaccounts.  The subaccounts are the mutual fund^ choices available within a VA. The management fees are the same as an investment manager’s fees within a mutual fund^. These fees will vary depending on the subaccount options within the annuity. Typically, they will be less than those charged by a managed mutual fund^ within the same investment category — though not always.

The fees associated with a VA’s riders and options can increase the cost of the VA significantly, but these are optional. However, I would hazard to say that most of today’s variable annuities# are sold because of the riders and **guarantees associated with them.

Why would anyone consider a VA with the amount of fees attached, two primary reasons; tax deferral and unlimited market upside potential.

Immediate and Fixed Annuities– the NO Fee Option

For the purpose of our fee discussion when we look at these annuities in their basics forms there are no fees are charges associated with these products. How do the agents and insurance company make money then you ask… similarly to the same way banks make money when you obtain a certificate of deposit. The expenses and cost are figured into the price of doing business by limiting or “managing” what they will return to you in the form of interest or dividends.

What about Equity Index or Fixed Index Annuities

Let me state this emphatically. A fixed index annuity is still a fixed annuity! So there are still no fees.  All the index does is offer a choice to tie interest crediting to a gain in an index rather than a fixed number stated by the annuity provider.

Ready for the Chocolate Sprinkles – of Fixed Annuities

Due to the popularity of the income riders on variable annuities#, fixed annuities have begun to add their own riders – typically for a fee. Some of these annuities are referred to as “Hybrid Annuities” because the riders let you construct an annuity that can combine pieces from the fixed, immediate and variable worlds.

The Ever Popular Hybrid Annuity – Fees can be Tricky

Hybrid annuities typically charge fees for income riders. The income riders typically have fees of less than one percent. However, you need to be sure you know which account the fee is based from. Hybrids with income riders have an account or ledger that tracks the value of the income rider account growth – this account typically grows at a higher percentage than the cash accumulation account.

A key for understanding hybrid account fees is to determine which accumulation total the fee is based upon. Some companies use the number to determine the amount of fee, even though you cannot use this account for a lump sum withdrawal. Other companies use the actual cash accumulation amount to determine the fee. However, the fee is always deducted from the case accumulation account and never from the account.

Why would you pay a hybrid rider fee? Much like the variable income rider, the hybrid rider fee allow for predictability of accumulation for an account geared toward retirement income. The main difference is that the insurance company is assuming the investment risk with a hybrid annuity.

Conclusion

The fees and expenses imposed by some annuities can be costly to own. You have to understand what you are getting for those dollars you are giving up. Annuities of all varieties are basically tools to give you insurance on you income. They are vehicles that are designed to provide a . When utilized correctly they can provide a level of comfort and security for anyone wanting a **guaranteed lifetime income.

Annuities are multifaceted devices that can be key pieces of a savings or retirement plan. Do not let the popular media discourage you from choosing the best decision for your future! Understanding what each annuity fee does empowers you to the best decision for you.

Annuity Guys® Video Transcript:

Dick: We want to clear up some misconceptions maybe about annuities and fees, because you see that in the press a lot don’t you, Eric?

Eric: Oh, the conventional wisdom, everything you read, headlines, “Oh, annuities fees, don’t use them. They’re so bad, nasty, nasty, nasty.”

Dick: Now there is some truth to high fees in annuities. We don’t want to say that there isn’t any aspect of that that needs to be brought out.

Eric: Well, the analogy is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Dick: Yeah, we don’t want to do that.

Eric: If you’re going to cast all annuities as being bad, then you’re going to lose some good opportunities, because not all annuities if your fee driven, are bad.

Dick: Well, even the annuities that have the higher fees, in the right situation, if they’re presented properly, they may fit certain situations.

Eric: Exactly, usually you’re exchanging a fee for some kind of service or some kind of piece that you’re given.

Dick: Right, so you’re either going to pay a higher fee or perhaps you may earn a little less.

Eric: Let’s deal with the first flavor of what the highest, the typical highest fee annuity, which is the one that is most castigated about and written about, which is the variable annuity#. Variable annuities typically have higher fees.

Dick: Much higher fees.

Eric: And the reason is…

Dick: They have more upside potential. That’s one aspect of a variable annuity#, yet the fee structure has to do with mortality, because they have a death benefit.

Eric: A lot of them have a death benefit. Then they also have mutual fund^ options, their investment options. So what you’re doing is taking out an annuity wrapper, so to speak and wrapping it around a mutual fund^ option.

Dick: And typically Eric, when we have a mutual fund^ just an average fee structure for a mutual fund^, is approximately what?

Eric: Oh, you’re getting at least a.50%.

Dick: A half is minimal, pretty much.

Eric: Now I’m not talking about the load expense that you’re going to pay up front, your ongoing expenses could be .50% and usually 1.50%, so those fees exist in either world.

Dick: And I believe according to some data on Morning Star that they kind of look at the average and the average mutual fund^, is somewhere around 1.15% now. It used to be 1.5% not very long ago, but it is right around 1.15%. So you take 1.15% and say on a variable annuity# your mortality expense, your mortality and your expense ratio, M&E charges, you’re looking at an average of somewhere around maybe 1.50% or so. You put that with 1.15%, now you’re pushing you’re pushing 3.0%.

Eric: And then you start adding on the riders and that’s where the variable annuities# get really expensive, but that’s the…

Dick: That’s the **guarantee part of a variable annuity#.

Eric: Exactly, those are usually what most people are sold on, when they buy a variable annuity#. You want that insurance on your investment.

Dick: Right. So if the investments are not performing very well, obviously those fees are going to eat in pretty quick to the principal. In addition if you’re taking money out, so the principal may be at a little more risk, but the income is not or the potential for your heirs with a death benefit, because of the rider on the variable annuity#.

Eric: Right, but that’s typically the one thing we see out there when people are looking at fees, they’re looking at that variable annuity# and so you can have variable annuities# as low as .25% and as high as over 5.0%, if you start adding on all those riders.

Dick: It really adds up fast.

Eric: So there’s your high fee option. If you’re fee adverse knowing that your principal’s at risk and some other things with the variable knowing how they work, you have to make the educated choice.

Dick: Right, right and then a lot of times all annuities as we started out saying, in the press you tend to see annuity, high fee, but there are a lot of annuities that have no fees.

Eric: Exactly and when you look at fixed annuities and immediate annuities there are no fees.

Dick: There is no fee. It’s kind of known that you’re not, maybe going to earn as much—when I say you’re not going to earn as much; you’re don’t have as much earning potential, as you would have maybe in a variable annuity#, where it can earn as high as the market goes. You may have a declared interest rate in a fixed annuity or you may have an index option, which indexes to a popular S&P or Dow Jones or something of that nature.

Eric: And those are your low fee/no fee options. People say, “How do you get paid? How do those places make money if there are no fees?” Well, it’s the same way a CD at a bank. The bank doesn’t say, “Oh, I’m going to charge you a fee. I have to pay the salary of the guy that sold it to you.” It’s all factored in as a part of the price of doing business. It’s all built-in to that expense. So what you’re earning on that annuity is truly all, basically earnings. There are no fees that are taken out of those products.

Dick: So I think that’s one thing that we just want to clarify, is that when you are buying an annuity that there are some annuities that really virtually have no fees. They protect your principal. They maybe don’t have as much upside potential. They’re purchased for other reasons than just the potential of a high return. They are purchased for safety, for a more secure retirement vehicle, and those are the ones that do not have fees.

Eric: Now when we talk about fixed annuities and we say there are no fees there is of course the mystical hybrid annuity, which is built off of a fixed annuity chassis, in the sense of your principal is not at risk. However, there are fees associated typically through the riders.

Dick: Yes, there are.

Eric: That is one of the things, when you look at a fixed annuity you can’t just throw the blanket over the fixed annuity and say none of them have fees.

Dick: There are some fees.

Eric: Because if you’re going for that hybrid option, which has basically, an income rider or a long-term care rider, if you’re adding a rider on, that’s where you are going to potentially see fees.

Dick: Right. I do think that we have to add the caveat that the fees typically are very low on the indexed annuity, under 1.0% as a rule, and sometimes some of those riders come with no fee involved. We do want to make that clear.

Eric: Exactly, so it’s understanding, if the rider that you’re buying gets you further to what you’re trying to accomplish with either your savings plan or your retirement cash flow plan, those are the times you’re willing to give up some of that upside or you’re willing to pay for that **guarantee. It’s insurance on your money. It’s insurance on your retirement plan.

Dick: Well, you know that you can potentially by buying a rider, by paying a fee, say it’s a .50% or .75% something of that nature, you know that you can **guarantee that your income potential could double in 10-years of what you would have today, just by buying that rider. That could be money very well spent.

Eric: Well, you’re putting a **guarantee of your future income in the bank. You’re banking on that retirement dollar being there, you’re buying an income stream. That’s what those riders are designed for. They’re designed for income, not for accumulation. If you’re designing them for accumulation, you’re being sold a bag goods, because that’s not what they’re for. They’re income riders, for your future income.

Dick: Exactly. Well Eric, I don’t know that if we’ve cleared up everything on fees, today.

Eric: Well, not necessarily everything. I guess the one thing we should in closing with the hybrid annuity. There is one caveat that you always have to be careful, when you’re working with your adviser you want to ask, “Is the fee based off of the cash account or the accumulation account?” Now we’re not going to explain that in this video, because it would take us another 30 minutes.

Dick: But there’s another part of that I want to give a little clarity to and that is that the fee never comes out of the income account, so even though we haven’t gotten into the detail of the income account and the cash accumulation account, we’ve done that in some other videos. That the fee always comes out of the cash account, so it reduces your cash value, but the income account has whatever the compounding amount is in there, say if it’s 8.0%, it’s not deducted. There is nothing deducted. So now we’ve really confused you.

Eric: I was going to say, “Now we’ve confused you.”

Dick: You have to watch our next video.

Eric: Perfect time to call your financial adviser or to give us a call.

Dick: Or give us a call.

Eric: Thanks very much for watching.

Dick: Thank you.

 

 

What are Hybrid Annuities?

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Hybrid annuities, also referred to as hybrid income annuities, are essentially a type of annuity contract that allows the account owner to tie the growth of his or her assets into market benchmark (i.e. Dow Jones IA, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100), with an income rider or riders.

On the most basic level, a hybrid annuity is a fixed index annuity with an income rider attached to it.

Hybrid annuities can help to resolve the concerns of retirement income by offering **guaranteed annuity rates for growth on annuity income accounts. They also such as long-term care funding––while still providing one with a regular income. These annuities have the potential to solve several types of needs in retirement.

A hybrid annuity essentially works the same way that a regular annuity does, in that making an allocation begins by choosing the hybrid annuity that meets key retirement objectives and then funding the hybrid annuity contract with a licensed agent is the final step.

Dick and Eric look at the Hybrid Annuity in this short video explanation.

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**Guarantees, including optional benefits, are backed by the claims-paying ability of the issuer, and may contain limitations, including surrender charges, which may affect policy values. During this segment, Dick and Eric are referring to Fixed Annuities unless otherwise specified.

Annuity Guys® Video Transcript:

Dick: And folks as you can see at this point, we’re going to go into one more type of annuity here, which is really no annuity at all. It’s a combination of all the above, but as you can see, every annuity has so many different aspects and there are good aspects to each annuity that you really want to think this through.

You want to put some real thought into it. You want to work with an expert that can help you think through all of the variables, and the possibilities and really zero in on, what really is going to work best for you, what’s going to be most suitable. And maybe, as Eric said earlier, it’s no annuity at all.

However, annuities do answer some important questions to secure retirement, securing retirement income and one of the things that we want to talk about here, to just kind of wind it up is something that you’ll find terms over the internet and different ones that are talking about it, and that is a hybrid annuity, and what is different about a hybrid annuity? Eric, I’ve been talking here again. I’m getting you starting on everything. Go ahead let’s start off on a hybrid.

Eric: The hybrid annuity and again, we’re building here so you’ve got your fixed index chassis. Now when you start adding income riders onto a fixed annuity. . .

Dick: Right. And I think that’s, I just want to kind of zero in on that point you made, and that is that it is a fixed annuity. So first of all, we’ve got safety. It’s a fixed annuity then it’s indexed, so we add the indexing option.

Eric: That’s one of the options. You can also take that **guaranteed number. . .

Dick: Just a fixed…

Eric: … is just a fixed return. So those are all pieces, it’s that fixed annuity chassis, and then you’re going to add on top of it, usually the key component is the income rider. So we’re adding an income rider which gives us some of that immediate annuity flavor.

Dick: An income rider **guarantees.

Eric: Right, so what’s the one thing we love about an immediate annuity? It’s that income **guaranteed for life. Now wouldn’t we like to get that for life, without having to give up the lump sum?

Dick: Yes.

Eric: And that’s where the hybrid comes in. It’s that contractual income for life **guarantee, but without having to give up access to the whole.

Dick: Eric, and in our experience and I’m just going to throw the question to you. I could answer it, but in our experience how close can we come with the hybrid annuity, to matching the income of an immediate annuity, where we’re **guaranteeing it for life.

Eric: We come very close typically. There’s usually a couple percentage points difference. Where that fudge factor comes in per se is how long is it going to be in deferral? How long are you going to live?

Dick: What’s the age of the person?

Eric: Right, there are unknown variables that come into play, but the nice thing is we are able to **guarantee, typically a lifetime income higher than you would get, if you just left your money in liquid assets…

Dick: Oh, absolutely

Eric: … that you pulled out, because with a degree of certainty with an annuity you’re going to get that lifetime income. With the liquid assets you have to kind of take the ups and downs of the market and have that little bit more uncertainty. So this income rider…

Dick: You don’t have the contractual **guarantees that the annuity will give.

Eric: … will still give you access to the cash, the majority of your cash. I would say is probably the best way to think of it, with also using those life terms.

Dick: And that’s what I kind of say, is having your cake and eating it too, because with the hybrid style of annuity you can not only **guarantee income for life, but you can pass a lot of money on to the next generation to your heirs, if you haven’t used the money all for your income. And that depends on how long you live, and how much money that you actually take out of the annuity, where with an immediate annuity you’re going to leave very little, if any to the next generation. With the hybrid annuity you could leave the majority of it depending on life expectancy and that type of thing and you can still **guarantee your income for life. So if you happen to live a long life, now it is true if you use all of that money up, because you live a long time, then you really aren’t going to have—your income is going to continue as long as you live.

Eric: It’s an annuity, long time income.

Dick: But you won’t pass money on, because you’ve used it up.

Eric: If you spend all your money, if you drained all your savings accounts, in this case if you drained the annuity of the cash they will still pay you that income for life or whatever that contractual **guarantee amount was. Now you will not have anything to pass on to heirs, if you live long enough.

Dick: And you spend it, but they’re income will continue.

Eric: And that’s the best **guarantee you could have. You won’t out